Jun
28
2010
Market Report
Author: Randall GoltzmanPersonal Income Rose 0.4% in May, Consumer Spending Grew 0.2%. The savings rate increased to 4 percent last month, the highest level in eight months. Wage income grew 0.5% for the second consecutive month. The report showed inflation was stabilizing. The inflation gauge tied to spending patterns increased 1.9 percent from May 2009 after a 2 percent increase in the 12 months through April.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.21 in May from a downwardly revised 0.25 in April (previously 0.29), consistent with an economy in the early stages of a tepid and still-fragile recovery. Moreover, the index is consistent with subdued inflation.
Treasury 10-Year Yield Drops to Lowest Since 2009 on G-20’s Deficit Stance Treasuries rallied, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to the lowest level since April 2009, on concern the economic recovery will remain slow. Mortgage securities backed by 5.5% are widening on Fed announcement they will begin coupon swap program tomorrow.
Group of 20 Responds to European Debt Crisis With Deficit-Cutting Target Group of 20 leaders responded to the European debt crisis with deficit-reduction targets and agreed to pursue higher capital requirements for banks once economic recoveries take hold.
New York Fed Releases Statement Regarding Timely Settlement of Federal Reserve’s Agency Mortgage-Backed Security Purchases: The Fed will start the trades as soon as tomorrow and doesn’t expect to do more than $9.2 billion of the swaps, the amount of its unsettled Fannie Mae 5.5 percent bond trades. The Desk plans to swap unsettled Fannie Mae 30-year 5.5 percent coupon securities (Fannie Mae 5.5) for other agency MBS that are more readily available for settlement. The operations will begin on or around Tuesday, June 29, will be conducted as expeditiously as market conditions allow, and are not expected to exceed the unsettled amount of $9.2 billion in the Fannie Mae 5.5. In addition, the Desk may continue to arrange dollar roll transactions as needed to facilitate settlement. For more details on agency MBS purchase operations, see the program’s frequently asked questions.
MBA Responds to Conference Committee Agreement on Risk Retention, Mortgage Underwriting and Appraisals. “We believe the progress that the conferees have made on risk retention and mortgage underwriting and home appraisals reflect an improved shift from what could have been much more harmful legislation,” said MBA Chairman Robert E. Story, Jr., CMB. “Mortgage lending is going to change as a result of this legislation. There will be increased costs associated and new regulatory burdens that will impact consumers and lenders. As the regulators begin work on the details, during the coming year MBA will continue to push for improvements to ensure a balance is struck between ensuring a safe, robust US financial system, protecting consumers and avoiding negative impacts on credit availability.”
Housing Expert: ‘The Suburban Century Is Over’. Over the next decade, four demographic groups will fuel the housing market: older baby boomers increasingly are moving back to the central city, while younger baby boomers are finding it more difficult to relocate for jobs because they cannot sell their suburban houses. Meanwhile, millennials are more environmentally aware and will seek urban lifestyles, and immigrants who cannot afford large suburban houses to shelter multiple generations will increase demand for rentals.
Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead
Monday, June 28
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index May n/a n/a 0.29
8:30 AM Personal Income May n/a n/a 0.4%
Tuesday, June 29
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 6/26/2010 n/a n/a -0.8%
9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes April n/a n/a 2.3
10:00 AM The Conference Board Consumer Confidence June n/a n/a 63.3
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 6/27/2010 n/a n/a -45
Wednesday, June 30
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM ISM – NY Report June n/a n/a 449.3 index
9:45 AM ISM-Chicago June n/a n/a 59.7
10:30 AM Oil and Gas Inventories 6/25/2010 n/a n/a 365.1 mil barrels
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