Mortgage Pros, Inc.

Jobless Claims Increase 19,000 to 479,000 in the week ended July 31 and defied economists estimates calling for a dip of 2,000. The last time claims were this high was the week of April 10. Continuing Claims dropped by 34,000 to 4.54 million in the week ended July 24.
Treasury 10-Year Note Advances as Report Shows Initial Jobless Claims Rose Treasury 10-year notes advanced after initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week, adding to evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is stalling. The yield on the two-year note was little changed at 0.55 percent after falling on Aug. 3 to a record low 0.5143 percent. The 10-year note’s yield dropped on Aug. 4 to 2.88 percent, the lowest level since July 22. Tomorrow’s all important Employment report is expected to show a loss of 65,000 jobs last month, according to median forecasts, and the unemployment rate probably will climb to 9.6% from 9.5%. The Treasury will sell a combined $74 billion of 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds next week.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates move to another record low for sixth consecutive week. The 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.54%, and the 15-year FRM averaged a record low of 4.00.

Personal Bankruptcies Rise 9%, Reversing Trend of declining filings over the previous three months and highlighting the continuing financial struggles of many consumers.

Geithner Pushes Tax Boost for Wealthy. Geithner made the Obama administration’s economic case for letting tax cuts for high earners expire at the end of this year, saying that failure to do so would harm rather than help economic growth

Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead

Friday, August 6

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Employment Situation
July
-75,000
n/a
-125,000

9:40 AM
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America
July
n/a
n/a
-2.3%

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
7/30/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

3:00 PM
Consumer Credit (G19)
June
-$5.5 bil
n/a
-$9.1 bil

Tuesday, August 10

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:30 AM
NFIB Small Business Economic Trends
July
n/a
n/a
89.0

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/7/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
Productivity and Costs
2010Q2
n/a
n/a
2.8%

10:00 AM
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
June
n/a
n/a
0.5%

2:15 PM
FOMC Monetary Policy
August
n/a
n/a
0.0-0.25%

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/8/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 11

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/6/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

8:30 AM
International Trade (FT900)
June
n/a
n/a
-$42.3 bil

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget*
July
n/a
n/a
-$68.4 bil

Thursday, August 12

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/7/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

8:30 AM
Import and Export Prices
July
n/a
n/a
-1.3%

Friday, August 13

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.1%

8:30 AM
Retail Sales
July
n/a
n/a
-0.5%

10:00 AM
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
August
n/a
n/a
66.5

10:00 AM
Business Inventories (MTIS)
June
n/a
n/a
0.1%

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/6/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 16

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

MBA Delinquency Rates
2010Q2
n/a
9.38%
10.06%

8:30 AM
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
5.1

9:00 AM
Treasury International Capital Flows
June
n/a
n/a
$35.4 bil

10:00 AM
NAHB Housing Market Index
August
n/a
n/a
14

2:15 PM
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey*
2010Q3
n/a
n/a
-7.1%

Tuesday, August 17

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/14/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
Producer Price Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.5%

8:30 AM
New Residential Construction (C20)
July
n/a
n/a
0.549 mil

9:15 AM
Industrial Production
July
n/a
n/a
0.1%

10:00 AM
Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales)*
2010Q2
n/a
n/a
38.7 bil

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/15/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 18

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

10:00 AM
Business Employment Dynamics
2009Q4
n/a
n/a
6,296.0

10:00 AM
Risk of Recession
July
n/a
n/a
27%

10:30 AM
Oil and Gas Inventories
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
360.8 mil barrels

Thursday, August 19

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/14/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

10:00 AM
The Conference Board Leading Indicators
July
n/a
n/a
-0.2%

10:00 AM
Philadelphia Fed Survey
August
n/a
n/a
5.1

10:30 AM
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
51.00 bcf

Friday, August 20

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

10:00 AM
Regional and State Employment
July
n/a
n/a
N/A

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 23

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.63

Tuesday, August 24

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/21/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

10:00 AM
Existing-Home Sales
July
n/a
n/a
5.37 mil

10:00 AM
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
16

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/22/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 25

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/20/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

8:30 AM
Durable Goods (Advance)
July
n/a
n/a
-1.0%

10:00 AM
New-Home Sales (C25)
July
n/a
n/a
330,000

10:00 AM
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
June
n/a
-3.0%
-1.2%

Thursday, August 26

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/21/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

11:00 AM
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
3

Friday, August 27

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
GDP
2010Q2
2.5%
2.0%
2.7%

10:00 AM
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
August
n/a
n/a
66.5

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/20/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 30

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Personal Income
July
n/a
n/a
0.4%

9:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
June
n/a
n/a
4.6

10:30 AM
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
August
n/a
n/a
-21.0

Tuesday, August 31

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/28/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
ISM – NY Report
August
n/a
n/a
458.9 index

9:45 AM
ISM-Chicago
August
n/a
n/a
59.1

10:00 AM
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
August
n/a
n/a
50.4

2:00 PM
FOMC Minutes
August
n/a
n/a
N/A

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index

Posted in HEADLINE NEWS, MORTGAGE NEWS, THE FED | No Comments »

Holiday Bond Market schedule: NO early close Friday, Full close Monday 7/5/10

Pending Sales of Existing Homes Fell 30% in May, the biggest on record since 2001 and more than the forecasted 14% drop. The decline shows that the industry at the center of the financial crisis remains vulnerable in the absence of government support. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit. “Existing-home sales that close in June will remain elevated, but we’ll then see a notable decline for July and August.”
Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 56.2 last month from 59.7 in May. The ISM’s production index decreased to 61.4 from 66.6. The new orders measure dropped to 58.5 from 65.7. The employment gauge decreased to 57.8 from 59.8. The measure of export orders declined to 56 from 62.
Jobless Claims increased by 13,000 to 472,000; Continuing claims rose by 43,000 to 4,616,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,573,000.
Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since October on U.S. Jobs, Factory Reports The extra yield investors demand to hold Treasury 10-year notes over 2-year debt fell to the lowest level since October as an increase in initial jobless claims and slower manufacturing growth raised the risk of deflation.
Greenspan Says U.S. Is Undergoing a `Typical Pause’ in Economic Recovery Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economic recovery is undergoing a “typical pause” that will be shaped by the performance of stock markets.
Growth Slows Across U.S. Economy. A slew of data pointed to slowing growth throughout the economy, from slower manufacturing expansion to elevated claims for jobless benefits and declines in home construction and pending sales.

‎
Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead
Thursday, July 1
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 6/26/2010 450,000 455,000 457,000
10:00 AM Construction Spending (C30) May -0.8% -1.4% 2.7%
10:00 AM Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes 2010Q1 n/a n/a -2.5
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index June 59.0 59.3 59.7
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May 98.4 n/a 110.9

Friday, July 2
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Employment Situation June -110,000 -155,000 431,000
9:40 AM ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America June n/a n/a -2.8%
10:00 AM Factory Orders (M3) May -0.5% -1.5% 1.2%
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 6/25/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Tuesday, July 6
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/3/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
10:00 AM ISM Nonmanufacturing Index June 55.5 n/a 55.4
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/4/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 7
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/2/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
7:30 AM Challenger Report June n/a n/a 38,810

Thursday, July 8
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
Chain Store Sales
June n/a n/a 2.5%
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/3/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
3:00 PM Consumer Credit (G19) May $0.0 bil n/a $1.0 bil

Friday, July 9
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade (MWTR) May 0.6% n/a 0.4%
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/2/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Tuesday, July 13
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:30 AM NFIB Small Business Economic Trends June n/a n/a 92.2
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/10/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
8:30 AM International Trade (FT900) May n/a n/a -$40.3 bil
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey May n/a n/a 24.4%
2:00 PM Treasury Budget* June n/a n/a -$135.9 bil
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/11/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 14
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/9/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
8:30 AM Import and Export Prices June n/a n/a -0.6%
8:30 AM Retail Sales June n/a n/a -1.2%
10:00 AM Business Inventories (MTIS) May n/a n/a 0.4%
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
June n/a n/a N/A

Thursday, July 15
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/10/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
8:30 AM Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey 2010Q2 n/a n/a 78%
8:30 AM NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 19.6
8:30 AM Producer Price Index June n/a n/a -0.3%
9:15 AM Industrial Production June n/a n/a 1.2%
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey July n/a n/a 8.0

Friday, July 16
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Consumer Price Index June n/a n/a -0.2%
9:00 AM Treasury International Capital Flows May n/a n/a $83.0 bil
10:00 AM University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey July n/a n/a 76.0
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/9/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Sunday, July 18
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Risk of Recession June n/a n/a 23%

Monday, July 19
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index July n/a n/a 17

Tuesday, July 20
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/17/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
8:30 AM New Residential Construction (C20) June n/a n/a 0.593 mil
10:00 AM Regional and State Employment June n/a n/a N/A
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/18/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 21
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/16/2010 n/a n/a 621.2

Thursday, July 22
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/17/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
10:00 AM Existing-Home Sales June n/a n/a 5.66 mil
10:00 AM The Conference Board Leading Indicators June n/a n/a 0.4%
10:00 AM FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index May n/a -2.9% -1.5%

Friday, July 23
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Mass Layoffs June n/a n/a 1,412
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/16/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Monday, July 26
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index June n/a n/a 0.21
10:00 AM New-Home Sales (C25) June n/a n/a 300,000

Tuesday, July 27
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/24/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes May n/a n/a 2.3
10:00 AM The Conference Board Consumer Confidence July n/a n/a 63.3
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 23
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/25/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 28
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/23/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
8:30 AM Durable Goods (Advance) June n/a n/a -1.1%
2:00 PM Beige Book June

Thursday, July 29
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/24/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 3

Friday, July 30
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Employment Cost Index 2010Q2 n/a n/a 0.6%
8:30 AM GDP 2010Q2 n/a n/a 2.7%
8:30 AM ISM – NY Report July n/a n/a 449.3 index
9:45 AM ISM-Chicago July n/a n/a 59.7
10:00 AM University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey July n/a n/a 76.0
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/23/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Posted in HEADLINE NEWS, MORTGAGE NEWS, THE FED | No Comments »

RISMEDIA, June 14, 2010—(MCT)—The U.S. economy is in a moderate recovery and should continue growing through next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to remain higher than usual, and it will take “a significant amount of time” to replace the jobs that have been lost in the recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said recently.

In testimony before the House Budget Committee, Bernanke offered a mix of optimism and reality check. He pointed to numerous signs of improvement in the economy, but cautioned that improvement in the vital housing sector has been shallow and remains vulnerable.

The Fed’s release of the Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions conducted by its district banks, later confirmed Bernanke’s views. The survey found all 12 Fed districts reporting economic growth, the first time that’s happened since a deep recession began in December 2007.

Private forecasters shared Bernanke’s growing optimism.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, recently released a report on economic conditions in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas that was encouraging.

“The economic expansion is broadening out across the country, with nearly two-thirds of the nation’s metro areas now out of recession,” Zandi told McClatchy Newspapers. “The strongest areas are mostly in the South and Midwest, as the economy is benefiting from the strong turn in manufacturing activity, a solid farm economy and more stable housing markets.”

In another positive sign, the Labor Department reported that job openings leapt in April to their highest level in 16 months, signaling that the private sector is ripe for a return to hiring.

“We’re still expecting that the job machine gets cranked up and pushes the unemployment rate a few tenths of a percentage point lower by the end of the year,” said Chris Varvares, the president of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, the influential St. Louis forecaster. The firm expects 3.7% growth this year and unemployment, now at 9.7%, to dip to the low 8% range next year.

The Fed expects the economy to grow in the range of 3.5% this year, Bernanke said, and faster next year as stimulus spending by the government gives way to business and consumer demand for goods and services.

“This pace of growth, were it to be realized, would probably be associated with only a slow reduction in the unemployment rate over time. In this environment, inflation is likely to remain subdued,” Bernanke said. He later added, “In all likelihood, however, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009.”

The economy has been growing steadily, and the nation has added jobs in five of the last six months. There also have been less publicized improvements. “Real consumer spending has risen at an annual rate of nearly 3½% so far this year, with particular strength in the highly cyclical category of durable goods,” Bernanke testified. “Consumer spending is likely to increase at a moderate pace going forward, supported by a gradual pickup in employment and income, greater consumer confidence and some improvement in credit conditions.” That’s all likely to increase the demand for goods and services, fueling further economic growth in what economists call a virtuous cycle, he suggested.

“Looking forward, investment in new equipment and software is expected to be supported by healthy corporate balance sheets, relatively low costs of financing of new projects, increased confidence in the durability of the recovery, and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment and expand capacity as sales prospects brighten,” Bernanke said. “More generally, U.S. manufacturing output, which has benefited from strong export demand, rose at an annual rate of 9% over the first four months of the year.”

For all the positive signs, however, a dark cloud remains over the real estate and construction industries. The temporary boost from a home buyer tax credit is likely to fade now that the April 15 deadline for the program has passed.

The Fed chairman said that “looking through these temporary movements, underlying housing activity appears to have firmed only a little since mid-2009, with activity being weighed down, in part, by a large inventory of distressed or vacant existing houses and by the difficulties of many builders in obtaining credit.”

As if to cement that point, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell last week to their lowest level since 1997. It was a clear sign that the expiration of tax credits reduced incentives for home sales.

Things aren’t much better in commercial real estate, Bernanke suggested, as spending on nonresidential buildings has been curtailed because of high vacancy rates, low property prices and difficulty in obtaining loans.

“Meanwhile, pressures on state and local budgets, though tempered somewhat by ongoing federal support, have led these governments to make further cuts in employment and construction spending,” he said.

Bernanke expressed confidence that the growing debt crisis in Europe won’t slow growth in the United States and pitch the economy back into recession, suggesting that events in Europe will have only a modest impact so long as the U.S. economy continues to grow.

Mounting government and private-sector debt in Europe has led to concerns of default in several European Union countries, and, given the swelling U.S. federal budget deficit, Bernanke warned lawmakers to get U.S. borrowing under control.

Once economic conditions have returned to normal, Congress and the president must address the structural problems in the nation’s health and welfare programs as baby boomers, the 75 million Americans born from 1946 to 1964, enter retirement and strain government programs, Bernanke said.

Posted in HEADLINE NEWS, MORTGAGE NEWS | 3 Comments »