Archive for the ‘THE FED’ Category

McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), with the 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages reaching record lows for this survey. (The 30-year fixed-rate survey began in 1971, and the 15-year began in 1991.) The 5-year adjustable rate mortgage also reached its lowest level since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 2005.

News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.49 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 5, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.54 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.22 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged a record low of 3.95 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.00 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.63 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.63 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.76 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.73 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.55 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.64 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.78 percent .

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

“And yet again, interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages and now the hybrid 5-year ARM fell to all-time record lows this week following the second quarter GDP release.. Annual revisions cut the cumulative GDP growth in half over the past three years ending in the first quarter of 2010 from 1.4 percent to 0.6 percent. This reduces inflationary pressures and allows longer-term rates room to ease.
“More recently, housing investment picked up in the second quarter of this year as the homebuyer tax credit spurred new and existing sales and low mortgage rates encouraged remodeling. Fixed residential investment added 0.6 percentage points to second quarter real GDP growth following two quarters of decline.”
Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation’s residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Over the years, Freddie Mac has made home possible for one in six homebuyers and more than five million renters.

Summary of Survey Results
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Average Conventional
30-Year Commitment Rate Fees & Points Average Conventional
15-Year Commitment Rate Fees & Points
US 4.49 0.7 3.95 0.6
Northeast 4.51 0.6 4.00 0.6
Southeast 4.52 0.7 3.95 0.6
N. Central 4.49 0.5 3.97 0.5
Southwest 4.51 0.6 3.96 0.5
West 4.45 0.8 3.90 0.8

Five/One-Year Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
First Commitment Rate Fees & Points Margin
US 3.63 0.6 2.74
Northeast 3.81 0.5 2.75
Southeast 3.50 0.6 2.75
N. Central 3.56 0.5 2.70
Southwest 3.69 0.7 2.79
West 3.55 0.8 2.73

One-Year Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
First Commitment Rate Fees & Points Margin
US 3.55 0.7 2.77
Northeast 3.61 0.6 2.80
Southeast 3.52 0.8 2.75
N. Central 3.56 0.4 2.72
Southwest 3.66 0.8 2.80
West 3.45 0.8 2.77

Freddie Mac defines its regions as follows:

Northeast: NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, WV, ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT
Southeast: NC, SC, TN, KY, GA, AL, FL, MS, PR, VI
North Central: OH, IN, IL, MI, WI, MN, IA, ND, SD
Southwest: TX, LA, NM, OK, AR, MO, KS, CO, NE, WY
West: CA, AZ, NV, OR, WA, UT, ID, MT, HI, AK, GU

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is for informational purposes only and Freddie Mac is not responsible for business decisions made based on the reported results of the PMMS. In general, the data presented were calculated from information collected Monday through Wednesday of the same week that the PMMS is released and may not reflect mortgage rates, fees or points currently available from any lender. Freddie Mac may change the methodology used to conduct the PMMS at any time and without notice.

Definitions
Commitment Rate is the interest rate a lender would charge to lend mortgage money to a qualified borrower exclusive of the fees and points required by the lender. This commitment rate applies only to conventional financing on conforming mortgages with loan-to-value rates of 80 percent or less.

ARM Index – is the One-year Treasury

Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) is the ratio of the loan amount of a mortgage loan to the lower of the appraisal value or purchase price of the property securing the loan.

Origination Fees and Discount Points are the total charged by the lender at settlement. One point equals one percent of the loan amount.

Margin is a fixed amount added to the underlying index to establish the fully indexed rate for an ARM.

Weighted Averages for the Primary Mortgage Market Survey have been adjusted as of December 17, 2009. The new weights use the dollar volume of conventional first-lien mortgage originations within the 1-unit Freddie Mac loan limit as reported under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) for 2008. The weights are listed in the table below.

Freddie Mac Region PMMS Weights
Northeast 26.0
Southeast 16.7
North Central 15.9
Southwest 13.2
West 28.2

——————————————————————————–
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Results
August 5, 2010
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
US NE SE NC SW W
Average 4.49 4.51 4.52 4.49 4.51 4.45
Fees & Points 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8

15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
US NE SE NC SW W
Average 3.95 4.00 3.95 3.97 3.96 3.90
Fees & Points 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8

5/1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages
US NE SE NC SW W
Average 3.63 3.81 3.50 3.56 3.69 3.55
Fees & Points 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8
Margin 2.74 2.75 2.75 2.70 2.79 2.73

1-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgages
US NE SE NC SW W
Average 3.55 3.61 3.52 3.56 3.66 3.45
Fees & Points 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8
Margin 2.77 2.80 2.75 2.72 2.80 2.77

The National Mortgage Rate Snapshot
One Year Ago One Week Ago
30-YR 15-YR 5/1-YR 1-YR ARM 30-YR 15-YR 5/1-YR 1-YR ARM
Average 5.22 4.63 4.73 4.78 4.54 4.00 3.76 3.64
Fees & Points 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Margin N/A N/A 2.74 2.75 N/A N/A 2.75 2.77

Market Report for August 5, 2010

Author: Randall Goltzman

Jobless Claims Increase 19,000 to 479,000 in the week ended July 31 and defied economists estimates calling for a dip of 2,000. The last time claims were this high was the week of April 10. Continuing Claims dropped by 34,000 to 4.54 million in the week ended July 24.
Treasury 10-Year Note Advances as Report Shows Initial Jobless Claims Rose Treasury 10-year notes advanced after initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased last week, adding to evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is stalling. The yield on the two-year note was little changed at 0.55 percent after falling on Aug. 3 to a record low 0.5143 percent. The 10-year note’s yield dropped on Aug. 4 to 2.88 percent, the lowest level since July 22. Tomorrow’s all important Employment report is expected to show a loss of 65,000 jobs last month, according to median forecasts, and the unemployment rate probably will climb to 9.6% from 9.5%. The Treasury will sell a combined $74 billion of 3- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds next week.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates move to another record low for sixth consecutive week. The 30-year fixed-rate averaged 4.54%, and the 15-year FRM averaged a record low of 4.00.

Personal Bankruptcies Rise 9%, Reversing Trend of declining filings over the previous three months and highlighting the continuing financial struggles of many consumers.

Geithner Pushes Tax Boost for Wealthy. Geithner made the Obama administration’s economic case for letting tax cuts for high earners expire at the end of this year, saying that failure to do so would harm rather than help economic growth

Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead

Friday, August 6

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Employment Situation
July
-75,000
n/a
-125,000

9:40 AM
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America
July
n/a
n/a
-2.3%

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
7/30/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

3:00 PM
Consumer Credit (G19)
June
-$5.5 bil
n/a
-$9.1 bil

Tuesday, August 10

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:30 AM
NFIB Small Business Economic Trends
July
n/a
n/a
89.0

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/7/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
Productivity and Costs
2010Q2
n/a
n/a
2.8%

10:00 AM
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
June
n/a
n/a
0.5%

2:15 PM
FOMC Monetary Policy
August
n/a
n/a
0.0-0.25%

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/8/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 11

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/6/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

8:30 AM
International Trade (FT900)
June
n/a
n/a
-$42.3 bil

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget*
July
n/a
n/a
-$68.4 bil

Thursday, August 12

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/7/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

8:30 AM
Import and Export Prices
July
n/a
n/a
-1.3%

Friday, August 13

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.1%

8:30 AM
Retail Sales
July
n/a
n/a
-0.5%

10:00 AM
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
August
n/a
n/a
66.5

10:00 AM
Business Inventories (MTIS)
June
n/a
n/a
0.1%

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/6/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 16

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

MBA Delinquency Rates
2010Q2
n/a
9.38%
10.06%

8:30 AM
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
5.1

9:00 AM
Treasury International Capital Flows
June
n/a
n/a
$35.4 bil

10:00 AM
NAHB Housing Market Index
August
n/a
n/a
14

2:15 PM
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey*
2010Q3
n/a
n/a
-7.1%

Tuesday, August 17

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/14/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
Producer Price Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.5%

8:30 AM
New Residential Construction (C20)
July
n/a
n/a
0.549 mil

9:15 AM
Industrial Production
July
n/a
n/a
0.1%

10:00 AM
Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales)*
2010Q2
n/a
n/a
38.7 bil

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/15/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 18

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

10:00 AM
Business Employment Dynamics
2009Q4
n/a
n/a
6,296.0

10:00 AM
Risk of Recession
July
n/a
n/a
27%

10:30 AM
Oil and Gas Inventories
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
360.8 mil barrels

Thursday, August 19

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/14/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

10:00 AM
The Conference Board Leading Indicators
July
n/a
n/a
-0.2%

10:00 AM
Philadelphia Fed Survey
August
n/a
n/a
5.1

10:30 AM
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
51.00 bcf

Friday, August 20

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

10:00 AM
Regional and State Employment
July
n/a
n/a
N/A

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/13/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 23

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
July
n/a
n/a
-0.63

Tuesday, August 24

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/21/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

10:00 AM
Existing-Home Sales
July
n/a
n/a
5.37 mil

10:00 AM
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
16

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
8/22/2010
n/a
n/a
-48

Wednesday, August 25

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
8/20/2010
n/a
n/a
720.6

8:30 AM
Durable Goods (Advance)
July
n/a
n/a
-1.0%

10:00 AM
New-Home Sales (C25)
July
n/a
n/a
330,000

10:00 AM
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
June
n/a
-3.0%
-1.2%

Thursday, August 26

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8/21/2010
n/a
n/a
464,000

11:00 AM
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
August
n/a
n/a
3

Friday, August 27

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
GDP
2010Q2
2.5%
2.0%
2.7%

10:00 AM
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
August
n/a
n/a
66.5

10:30 AM
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
8/20/2010
n/a
n/a
120.7

Monday, August 30

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

8:30 AM
Personal Income
July
n/a
n/a
0.4%

9:00 AM
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
June
n/a
n/a
4.6

10:30 AM
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
August
n/a
n/a
-21.0

Tuesday, August 31

United States
Date
Value
Consensus
Forecast
Previous

7:45 AM
Chain Store Sales Snapshot
8/28/2010
n/a
n/a
0.6%

8:30 AM
ISM – NY Report
August
n/a
n/a
458.9 index

9:45 AM
ISM-Chicago
August
n/a
n/a
59.1

10:00 AM
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
August
n/a
n/a
50.4

2:00 PM
FOMC Minutes
August
n/a
n/a
N/A

5:00 PM
ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index

Market Report – July 1st

Author: Randall Goltzman

Holiday Bond Market schedule: NO early close Friday, Full close Monday 7/5/10

Pending Sales of Existing Homes Fell 30% in May, the biggest on record since 2001 and more than the forecasted 14% drop. The decline shows that the industry at the center of the financial crisis remains vulnerable in the absence of government support. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit. “Existing-home sales that close in June will remain elevated, but we’ll then see a notable decline for July and August.”
Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 56.2 last month from 59.7 in May. The ISM’s production index decreased to 61.4 from 66.6. The new orders measure dropped to 58.5 from 65.7. The employment gauge decreased to 57.8 from 59.8. The measure of export orders declined to 56 from 62.
Jobless Claims increased by 13,000 to 472,000; Continuing claims rose by 43,000 to 4,616,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,573,000.
Treasury Yield Curve Flattest Since October on U.S. Jobs, Factory Reports The extra yield investors demand to hold Treasury 10-year notes over 2-year debt fell to the lowest level since October as an increase in initial jobless claims and slower manufacturing growth raised the risk of deflation.
Greenspan Says U.S. Is Undergoing a `Typical Pause’ in Economic Recovery Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economic recovery is undergoing a “typical pause” that will be shaped by the performance of stock markets.
Growth Slows Across U.S. Economy. A slew of data pointed to slowing growth throughout the economy, from slower manufacturing expansion to elevated claims for jobless benefits and declines in home construction and pending sales.


Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead
Thursday, July 1
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 6/26/2010 450,000 455,000 457,000
10:00 AM Construction Spending (C30) May -0.8% -1.4% 2.7%
10:00 AM Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes 2010Q1 n/a n/a -2.5
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index June 59.0 59.3 59.7
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales May 98.4 n/a 110.9

Friday, July 2
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Employment Situation June -110,000 -155,000 431,000
9:40 AM ECRI Future Inflation Gauge-North America June n/a n/a -2.8%
10:00 AM Factory Orders (M3) May -0.5% -1.5% 1.2%
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 6/25/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Tuesday, July 6
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/3/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
10:00 AM ISM Nonmanufacturing Index June 55.5 n/a 55.4
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/4/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 7
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/2/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
7:30 AM Challenger Report June n/a n/a 38,810

Thursday, July 8
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
Chain Store Sales
June n/a n/a 2.5%
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/3/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
3:00 PM Consumer Credit (G19) May $0.0 bil n/a $1.0 bil

Friday, July 9
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade (MWTR) May 0.6% n/a 0.4%
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/2/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Tuesday, July 13
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:30 AM NFIB Small Business Economic Trends June n/a n/a 92.2
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/10/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
8:30 AM International Trade (FT900) May n/a n/a -$40.3 bil
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey May n/a n/a 24.4%
2:00 PM Treasury Budget* June n/a n/a -$135.9 bil
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/11/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 14
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/9/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
8:30 AM Import and Export Prices June n/a n/a -0.6%
8:30 AM Retail Sales June n/a n/a -1.2%
10:00 AM Business Inventories (MTIS) May n/a n/a 0.4%
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
June n/a n/a N/A

Thursday, July 15
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/10/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
8:30 AM Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey 2010Q2 n/a n/a 78%
8:30 AM NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 19.6
8:30 AM Producer Price Index June n/a n/a -0.3%
9:15 AM Industrial Production June n/a n/a 1.2%
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey July n/a n/a 8.0

Friday, July 16
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Consumer Price Index June n/a n/a -0.2%
9:00 AM Treasury International Capital Flows May n/a n/a $83.0 bil
10:00 AM University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey July n/a n/a 76.0
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/9/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Sunday, July 18
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Risk of Recession June n/a n/a 23%

Monday, July 19
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index July n/a n/a 17

Tuesday, July 20
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/17/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
8:30 AM New Residential Construction (C20) June n/a n/a 0.593 mil
10:00 AM Regional and State Employment June n/a n/a N/A
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/18/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 21
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/16/2010 n/a n/a 621.2

Thursday, July 22
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/17/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
10:00 AM Existing-Home Sales June n/a n/a 5.66 mil
10:00 AM The Conference Board Leading Indicators June n/a n/a 0.4%
10:00 AM FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index May n/a -2.9% -1.5%

Friday, July 23
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
10:00 AM Mass Layoffs June n/a n/a 1,412
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/16/2010 n/a n/a 122.9

Monday, July 26
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index June n/a n/a 0.21
10:00 AM New-Home Sales (C25) June n/a n/a 300,000

Tuesday, July 27
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:45 AM Chain Store Sales Snapshot 7/24/2010 n/a n/a -0.5%
9:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes May n/a n/a 2.3
10:00 AM The Conference Board Consumer Confidence July n/a n/a 63.3
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 23
5:00 PM ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 7/25/2010 n/a n/a -43

Wednesday, July 28
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 7/23/2010 n/a n/a 621.2
8:30 AM Durable Goods (Advance) June n/a n/a -1.1%
2:00 PM Beige Book June

Thursday, July 29
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Jobless Claims 7/24/2010 n/a n/a 457,000
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey July n/a n/a 3

Friday, July 30
United States
Date Value Consensus Forecast Previous
8:30 AM Employment Cost Index 2010Q2 n/a n/a 0.6%
8:30 AM GDP 2010Q2 n/a n/a 2.7%
8:30 AM ISM – NY Report July n/a n/a 449.3 index
9:45 AM ISM-Chicago July n/a n/a 59.7
10:00 AM University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey July n/a n/a 76.0
10:30 AM ECRI Weekly Leading Index 7/23/2010 n/a n/a 122.9